Methods

Preregistration

The hypothesis, the test statistic, the significance level, and the milestone schedule are filed publicly before collection opens. They cannot be edited while the register is open — only appended to, with the revision logged.

A named chance baseline

Every experiment states what pure luck produces. Without that number a result means nothing, and it is the first thing every chart draws.

Milestone reads

Conclusions are drawn only at preset sample sizes. Watching a running total until it looks interesting and stopping there is how noise gets published.

Correction for multiplicity

Run twelve comparisons at the usual threshold and roughly one will look remarkable by luck alone. Where we test many groups, the correction is applied and both the raw and corrected results are shown.

Sealed entries

Same-day submissions stay hidden until the window closes, so no participant is anchored by the crowd.

Open records

Anonymised raw data and the analysis code are published and refreshed on the same schedule as the dashboards. Check our arithmetic.

Every connection drawn in a lineage carries one of six labels. The label does the arguing so the prose can stay calm — and so a documented transmission never gets to borrow the authority of a firm one.

Sample size sets the smallest real effect an experiment could notice. These are computed for the blind horoscope design against its 8.33% chance baseline, at 80% power — not illustrations.