Occult Research Observatory
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Method notes

Method notes

Short, auditable guides to the safeguards built into the experiment register.

Each note starts with a practical problem—peeking, guessing the blind, choosing a winner after the fact—and follows it into the protocol. These are explanations of the machinery, not substitutes for the filed plans.

Method notes · 017 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

What preregistration prevents — and what it cannot prevent

A timestamped analysis plan closes some escape routes, but it does not turn a weak question, noisy measurement, or dishonest report into strong evidence.

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Method notes · 026 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

Why blinding matters

Blinding does not accuse anyone of cheating. It removes information that can steer judgement without entering awareness.

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Method notes · 036 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

Why a generic description feels personal

The Forer effect is not gullibility. It is a predictable interaction between flexible language, selective memory, and the promise that a text was made for you.

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Method notes · 047 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

Someone has to get lucky

An unlikely streak for one named person can be an ordinary event among thousands of people, cards, signs, dates, and outcomes.

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Method notes · 056 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

Commit–reveal randomness, explained

A cryptographic commitment cannot prove that a choice was random, but it can prove that the server did not replace that choice after seeing your guess.

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Method notes · 066 MIN READ · REVISED 2026-08-21

Why today’s results stay sealed until tomorrow

A live dashboard can become part of the experiment it reports. Delayed aggregates keep the crowd, the operator, and the stopping decision from chasing today’s noise.

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